In this chapter, we provide a broad theoretical background for the material to follow. We start by presenting a series of conceptual tools, which in later chapters are applied to specific cases. Rather than aiming for a complete perspective, our goal is to equip the reader with a feel for the possibilities. Those possibilities look very different now than they did a generation ago. In the nineteenth century, change was the great topic of social theory, but by the mid twentieth century, it had largely ceased to have analytical importance for the social and evolutionary sciences. Now, we argue, change needs to be central to our thinking once again.
An important foundation for this realization has been the flourishing of computational modeling. But the availability of more powerful tools for statistical analysis is only part of the story; of greater importance is the growing understanding that change can be quantified, studied and managed.
Below, we present two models that give insight into this new way of thinking. The first, Robert May’s logistic map shows how even simple equations can lead to vastly different outcomes – islands of order in a sea of chaos. The second model, James Lovelock’s Daisyworld, provides an introduction to complex interactions, showing how feedback between actors and their environment can end up changing both.
These discoveries – and others like them – have opened up new vistas in physics and biology. As relative latecomers to this perspective, social scientists are in a position to benefit from several decades of theoretical work, including a substantial body of elegant mathematical tools.
But how to make use of them? In the chapters that follow, we present exemplar models for some of the ideas we talk about in the book. Read further to see how these concepts play out, as we explore a range of complex systems at the heart of contemporary anthropology.
An important foundation for this realization has been the flourishing of computational modeling. But the availability of more powerful tools for statistical analysis is only part of the story; of greater importance is the growing understanding that change can be quantified, studied and managed.
Below, we present two models that give insight into this new way of thinking. The first, Robert May’s logistic map shows how even simple equations can lead to vastly different outcomes – islands of order in a sea of chaos. The second model, James Lovelock’s Daisyworld, provides an introduction to complex interactions, showing how feedback between actors and their environment can end up changing both.
These discoveries – and others like them – have opened up new vistas in physics and biology. As relative latecomers to this perspective, social scientists are in a position to benefit from several decades of theoretical work, including a substantial body of elegant mathematical tools.
But how to make use of them? In the chapters that follow, we present exemplar models for some of the ideas we talk about in the book. Read further to see how these concepts play out, as we explore a range of complex systems at the heart of contemporary anthropology.